If you’ve been betting long enough, you’ve likely encountered the unpredictable force called variance. It’s the silent killer that can humble even the sharpest bettors.
You might think that consistently placing positive EV (Expected Value) bets guarantees profits, but variance? It has other plans. Let’s break it down.
What is Variance?
Variance is the difference between what should happen based on probability and what actually happens.
✅ Sometimes, it’s your best friend (like a lucky win on a bad call).
❌ Other times, it’s your worst nightmare (like losing a bet you were certain would cash).
It’s unpredictable, impartial, and always lurking in the background.
When Variance Strikes Back
Imagine this:
You’re betting on positive EV fights for two months straight. Your process is solid, and logically, profits should follow.
But… you’re losing.
Why? Variance. It doesn’t care about your spreadsheets or probabilities.
The Good Side of Variance
It’s not all bad. Variance swings both ways.
Ever won a bet you didn’t deserve? Like when a referee’s controversial decision bails you out? That’s variance working in your favor.
Example:
In the Nicholas Motta vs. Trey Ogden fight, Motta was clearly outmatched, but a referee’s decision led to a draw, returning stakes to both sides. EV didn’t matter—variance ruled the day.
Variance Humbles Everyone
Even the best bettors can’t escape variance.
You could:
✅ Crush every +EV bet for six months and still lose due to bad variance.
✅ Go on a winning streak and think it’s all skill, when it’s actually good luck masquerading as genius.
Variance is impartial. It tests your bankroll, patience, and mental fortitude.
Why Variance Can Be Dangerous
Variance can lead to:
❌ Doubting your system when good bets lose.
❌ Overconfidence when bad bets win.
Both are dangerous mindsets that can derail your long-term success.
How to Respect Variance (Without Fearing It)
Variance is inevitable, but it doesn’t have to derail you. Here’s how to handle it:
✔️ Use smart staking strategies: Keep bets consistent and proportional to your bankroll.
✔️ Stick to bankroll management: Avoid overextending during winning streaks or chasing losses.
✔️ Focus on the long term: Short-term swings are normal, but skill and positive EV prevail over time.
Variance is a storm, and your preparation is the shelter.
Final Takeaway
Variance isn’t a sign you’re doing something wrong—it’s part of the game.
Stay disciplined. Stay consistent. In the long run, sharp strategies and positive EV will prevail.
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