Guessing leads to losses. If you want long-term success, minimize guesswork and focus on strategy.
The Minimal Guessing Principle
✔️ Problem: Guess wrong, you lose.
✔️ Solution: Bet on consistent fighters with clear patterns.
Low Guessing = Low Risk
Some fighters are predictable:
✅ Khabib Nurmagomedov – Always in shape, always grapples, always wins.
Fighters like this reduce uncertainty and improve your edge.
High Guessing = High Risk
Some fighters are wildcards:
❌ Lupita Godinez – Wrestler one fight, striker the next.
❌ Jamal Emmers – Has a grappling edge but chooses to box.
More guesswork = more risk.
Extra Guesswork = Extra Risk
🚩 Injuries – Are they 100%?
🚩 Camp changes – Will the new style work?
🚩 Long layoffs – Will ring rust affect them?
When Guessing Might Be Worth It
If the odds are generous, risk can be justified.
📌 Example: Francis Ngannou after his first UFC loss – his mindset was uncertain, but the right odds could make it worth it.
How to Minimize Guessing & Maximize Wins
✔️ Bet on consistency.
✔️ Avoid too many unknowns.
✔️ Take risks only when the reward justifies it.
Final Takeaway: Guess Less, Win More
✔️ Prioritize clarity.
✔️ Choose fighters with proven patterns.
✔️ Don’t gamble on uncertainty unless the odds demand it.
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