Want to move beyond casual betting and start winning long-term? You need to master implied probability and +EV (positive expected value)—the foundation of smart betting.
1️⃣ What Is Implied Probability?
It’s how odds translate into a percentage chance of winning:
📊 Formula: Implied Probability (%) = 100 / (Decimal Odds)
Example:
- Odds of -400 → Decimal Odds 1.25
- Implied Probability: 100 / 1.25 = 80%
This helps you understand what the market believes about a fighter’s chances.
2️⃣ Why It Matters for Profitable Betting
Winning isn’t about picking the right fighter—it’s about finding value.
🔹 If the market says Fighter A has an 80% chance (-400 odds)…
🔹 But your analysis says 90%, that’s a +EV bet (an edge over the market).
3️⃣ How to Spot +EV Bets
Use this formula:
💰 EV = (Probability of Winning x Payout) – (Probability of Losing x Stake)
Example:
- Odds: -150 (60% implied probability)
- Your analysis: Fighter A has a 70% chance
- = +EV bet → You’ll profit long-term if your edge is real.
4️⃣ Why Hype & Narratives Are Dangerous 🚨
Public perception inflates odds—people bet based on flashy knockouts, big names, and hype. But hype doesn’t create value—math does.
If a fighter is priced at +300 (25% implied probability), but you believe they have a 35% true chance, that’s your edge.
5️⃣ The Unit System: Managing Risk Like a Pro
A unit = % of your bankroll (e.g., 1% = $10 on a $1,000 bankroll).
Using units ensures:
✅ Consistency
✅ Risk management
✅ Easy tracking
📌 Example: Bettor A wins $10,000 but staked $500,000—bad ROI.
Bettor B wins 50 units on a $500 bankroll—that’s skill & discipline.
6️⃣ The Winning Formula
Every bet should have:
1️⃣ A +EV edge (odds mispriced by the market).
2️⃣ A logical unit size (bet sizing based on confidence).
This isn’t gambling—it’s calculated investing.
7️⃣ Long-Term Success = Smart Strategy 🏆
Even elite bettors lose 40% of the time. But with +EV bets & bankroll discipline, you’ll win over months & years.
🔹 Forget lucky parlays.
🔹 Ignore hype.
🔹 Stick to math & strategy.
Action Steps for Smarter Betting
✅ Learn to calculate implied probability
✅ Identify +EV opportunities
✅ Adopt the unit system for risk management
✅ Stay disciplined & think long-term
The edge goes to those who play the numbers, not their emotions.
