If you’re serious about making money betting on MMA, here’s a crucial lesson: One fight doesn’t tell the full story.
MMA is unpredictable. A fighter’s last performance might not reflect their true potential.
Why?
✔️ Weight cuts.
✔️ Travel fatigue.
✔️ Injuries.
✔️ Bad stylistic matchups.
The Danger of Recency Bias:
✔️ After a dominant win, bettors overestimate a fighter.
✔️ After a tough loss, bettors write them off.
The market overreacts, and that’s where YOU can find value.
Example:
Cody Garbrandt looked untouchable vs. Dominick Cruz—flawless movement, perfect timing.
But inconsistency in later fights reminded us: One great night doesn’t make a career.
How to Avoid This Trap:
✔️ Base your judgment on multiple fights, not just one.
✔️ Focus on overall skillsets, not just the latest result.
✔️ Don’t abandon your analysis because of one poor showing.
Why This Works:
The market often overreacts to one fight.
✔️ Fighters who struggled become undervalued.
✔️ Fighters who impressed become overhyped.
Stay disciplined, trust your homework, and use recency bias to YOUR advantage.
Takeaway:
✔️ One performance doesn’t define a fighter.
✔️ Stay focused on the big picture.
✔️ Look for value when the market overreacts.
How do you handle recency bias in your MMA betting strategy? Let’s discuss in the comments!
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